Prediction of ultrafine particle number concentrations in urban environments by means of Gaussian process regression based on measurements of oxides of nitrogen

Gaussian process regression is used to predict ultrafine particle (UFP) number concentrations. We infer their number concentrations based on the concentrations of NO, NO2, CO and O3 at half hour and five minutes resolution. Because UFP number concentrations follow from a dynamic process, we have used a non-stationary kernel based on the addition of a linear and a rational quadratic kernel. Simultaneous measurements of UFP and gaseous pollutants were carried out during one month at three sampling locations situated within a 1km area in a Belgian city, Antwerp. The method proposed provides accurate predictions when using NO and NO2 as covariates and less accurate predictions when using CO and O3. We have also evaluated the models for different training periods and we have found that a ∗Corresponding author Email address: [email protected] (Matteo Reggente) Preprint submitted to Environmental Modelling & Software July 20, 2014 training period of at least seven days is suitable to let the models learn the UFP number concentration dynamics in different typologies of traffic.